Jakarta, Hilton News —
Based on a quick count of several institutions, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka is ahead in the range of 57-58 percent in this 2024 election.
Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Arya Fernandes analyzed, the victory had actually been predicted if you look at the trend of Prabowo-Gibran’s electability which continues to skyrocket ahead of the 2024 election.
He also said that the superiority of the paslon can be seen from the quick count results released by a number of survey agencies.
“The quick count (QC) results of a number of pollsters confirm the victory of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the range of 57-58 percent,” Arya said through an official statement quoted Friday (23/2).
In fact, he said, the number achieved by the two became the highest of the victory figures ever achieved by vice presidential candidates in the previous era.
“With this score, it is almost certain that the presidential election will take place in one round. This record managed to break President Joko Widodo’s achievement of 55.50 in the 2019 General Election,” Arya explained.
As for the estimated votes obtained based on the quick count, which was held by CSIS with Cyrus Network (CN), the vote for Prabowo-Gibran almost led in all regions of the country.
Unmitigated, the number of support for the candidates carried by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition is up to tens of percent, compared to other candidates.
Arya said that this achievement had fulfilled the requirements for victory in the presidential election contained in Article 6 (3) of the 1945 Constitution.
“In the article, it is stated that: Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidate Pairs who get more than fifty percent of the total votes in the general election with at least twenty percent of the votes in each province spread over more than half the number of provinces in Indonesia, are inaugurated as President and Vice President,” he explained.
According to Arya, Prabowo-Gibran’s victory was influenced by a number of things. One of them can be seen from the split-ticket voting numbers that occurred in supporters of the Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud coalition parties.
“These conditions certainly benefit Prabowo. He not only gets votes from his supporting party base, but also gets votes from other coalition parties,” Arya said.
Another influence that also contributed to Prabowo-Gibran’s victory rate was also obtained from the positive public perception of the government’s performance and the economic situation that was considered good.
“Prabowo-Gibran’s victory can also be seen from the change in the strategy of the campaign team targeting campaigns on the TikTok platform and the involvement of influential influencers in the national campaign team. Prabowo’s content reproduced on TikTok almost always goes viral and is watched by tens of millions of people,” Arya added.
Finally, Arya and CSIS noted that the 2024 elections complete the democratic process that has been carried out since the 1998 reform. That is, after that period, Indonesia has passed six elections.
He saw that with all the less and more, democracy is still the best choice for Indonesia in facing national and international problems in the future.
“In every election we see that power go up and down. Political changes are coming so fast, that we don’t have much time to adapt. Democracy, with all its records, is still the best choice for us at any time,” he said.
“We need a statesman who is a democrat to lead more than 270 million people in this country, to face the increasingly formidable domestic and global challenges in this year and the years ahead, we need a competent and experienced cabinet,” Arya said.
(inh/inh)